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股票市场行情分析

投資價值股票的捷徑

投資成功並沒有捷徑(一)

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投資哲學

制度也會造成錯誤定價。例如,許多投資級別債券基金經理不可持有低於 BBB 級的債券,當投資級別的債券被降級為垃圾債券時,便有可能引發強制性拋售,使債價被壓低於合理價值。

質量判斷和建基於規則的模型均可以把這些影響轉化成擊敗市場的回報,但我傾向於相信後者。模型的一致性使其較難出現認知偏差。質量判斷依賴直覺:知道何時適用某些規則,何時不適用某些規則。但正如卡納曼( Daniel Kahneman )在著作《快思慢想》( Thinking, Fast and Slow ) 中指出,在如股市一樣難以預測的環境中很難培養出可靠的直覺,因為反饋的質量很低,令人對所得到的資訊判斷是否有用變得困難。

美股選擇權和價值投資的捷徑

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價值投資法是什麼?2021價值投資者選股教學指南

《當物理博士遇上巴菲特的價值投資哲學: 不看盤,不看線,不追籌碼的極簡股票投資》by巫明帆:作者是一名物理博士,雖然看似和金融毫不相干,但作者利用他自身專業習慣,向讀者分析他自己所纍積的投資筆記。雖然作者是經過非常嚴謹的學術訓練的物理學者,但是這本書讀起來一點也不會枯燥乏味。相反,作者運用了很多經典的喜劇電影橋段再貼合台灣地區居民的投資習慣來拓展關於價值投資的原理,讓這本書不僅乾貨滿滿,還異常幽默風趣。

學巴菲特做價值投資,能提高獲利機率?道瓊最初的30檔成分股,點出投資人忽略的真相

為什麼? 道理很簡單,既然是大家都持有的股票,那麼籌碼一定相當分散,而且大家都看好,死活不肯賣,那麼這樣的股票一定很難有炒作行為;於是股價的上漲必須依靠業績的真實提升。「漂亮50」的業績當時都相當不錯,但由於大家極度看好,本益比早就高高掛起,平均都在70倍以上(即保持這樣的利潤,70年後你的投資才回本)。雖然公司都是各自行業的龍頭,賺點不菲的老大利潤是可以的,但要再像小公司一樣飛速成長,早已沒有了空間。所以可想而知,長期持有的結果是跑輸大盤,曾經被投資者稱頌不已的「漂亮50」變成了真實的「傷心50」。