分类
基本图表分析的策略

做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易

【Company Research】Jinxin Fertility (1951 HK) – Fast recovery from COVID-19 impact

Jinxin reported 2020 revenue of RMB1.43bn (-13.5% YoY) and adjusted net profit of 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 RMB372mn (-29.8% YoY), which were slightly below our estimates. Normal operations were interrupted by the COVID pandemic and the travel restrictions between the US and China. By region, revenue from the US decreased 34.5% YoY to RMB380mn and revenue from China slightly retreated 2.1% YoY to RMB1,046mn.

  1. Fast recovery in 2H20. Thanks to efficient operation, Jinxin’s business rebounded significantly in 2H20 given that its revenue from Chengdu, Shenzhen and the US rebounded by 21.5%, 49.1% and 36.1% HoH, respectively. In the US, local cycles conducted by HRC grew by 5.1% YoY from 2,283 in 2019 to 2,400 in 2020, indicating the Company’s superior operation capability amid the COVID pandemic. As the pandemic will gradually ease, we expect Jinxin’s both China and overseas business to continue to rebound in 2021E and beyond.
  1. VIP services delivered strong growth. VIP IVF treatment cycles accounted for 10.8% of total cycles conducted in Chengdu (vs 5.8% in 2019), representing 50.3% YoY growth. In Shenzhen, Jinxin upgraded its VIP services from only offering mini-VIP services to offering integrated-VIP services from Jan 2021. We expect the fast penetration of VIP services to help lift margins.
  1. M&As being long-term growth drivers. Historically, through M&A, Jinxin has expanded its footprint from Chengdu city to Shenzhen city, the US, Laos and Wuhan city. In China , benefiting from the Company’s excellent operation experiences, strong technical know-how, good brand awareness and sufficient cash on hand, we believe the Company will continue to explore M&A opportunities in tier 1/2 cities that have great coverage to local province and its surrounding areas. We expect Jinxin to complete at least one acquisition deal every year in China. In the US , we also expect, Jinxin to hire more new physicians and acquire fertility clinics to further expand market share. In southeast Asia , Jinxin prioritizes to acquire leading and reputable IVF provider in Southeast Asia to explore growth potential of the local markets.
  1. Lift TP to HK$19.55. To factor in the impact from COVID-19, we trimmed our 21E/22E forecast of revenue and net profit by 16%/16% and 19%/20%, respectively. we roll over our TP to 21E and derive new DCF-based TP of HK$19.55 (WACC: 9.5%, terminal growth rate: 3.0%). Catalyst: Acquisitions of quality assets; Risk: Worse impact from COVID-19 pandemic.

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簡單的價格行動外匯二元期權交易策略

簡單的價格行動是基於支撐和阻力與V定制的超買和超賣水平的交易系統 3 指標. 在本系統中使用的時間範圍是 5 分鐘或更高的到期時間 1-2 蠟燭. 此方法適用於任何金融市場.

【Company Research】China Construction Bank (939 HK) – Strong defensiveness against macro downturn

CCB’s FY19 net profit was up 4.7% YoY to RMB266.7bn, in line with CMBIS forecast and 1.1% above consensus estimate. 4Q19 earnings growth softened to 2.1% YoY from 5.2% YoY in 9M19, mainly on higher 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 tax expense. FY19 ROE declined 0.8ppt YoY to 13.2%, but still topped SOE peers. Dividend payout ratio remained stable at 30%.

  • Better positioned to withstand economic slowdown. We expect CCB to face less earnings downside risk vs sector peers, given: 1) decent provision buffer, 2) stringent NPL recognition, 3) limited credit exposure to risky industries, and 4) superior capital adequacy.
  • Results positive:1) Solid 4Q19 revenue growth of 8.0% YoY, faster than ICBC’s (1398 HK, BUY) 3.3% and BOC’s (3988 HK, BUY) 7.8%. Growth in net interest and fee income was 8.8% YoY and 6.8% YoY, respectively. 2)Asset quality continued to improve. NPL ratio fell 1bp QoQ to 1.42%, and provision coverage climbed 9ppt to 228%. CCB further strengthened NPL recognition, as NPLs covered 1.7x >90day overdue loans. The Bank should face less asset quality pressure during macro downturn, thanks to limited loan exposure 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 to cyclical industries (manufacturing, wholesale & retail). 3) Better deposit mix with proportion of demand deposit inched up 2.1ppt HoH to 55.2%, despite a mild contraction in total deposit balance. 4) Capital position remained strongest in the sector. CET1 and total CAR stood at 13.9% and 17.5% as of 4Q19.
  • Results negative: 1) 4Q19NIM contracted 3bp QoQto 2.24% by 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 our estimate, and FY19 NIM narrowed 5bp YoY to 2.26%. Rising liability cost (+12bp YoY), in particular higher deposit cost (+18bp YoY), more than offset the modest gain in asset yield (+6bp YoY). 2)More conservative asset mix. Lower-yield interbank assets expanded 60.6% QoQ, likely due to the Bank’s falling 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 risk appetite. 3) 4Q19 CIR picked up 0.5ppt YoY to 47.3%.
  • Maintain BUY and TP of HK$9.10. CCB trades at 0.63x FY20E P/B, 8.7% below its past 5-year mean. We kept earnings forecast unchanged, and our HK$9.10 TP is derived from 0.89x target P/B and FY20E BPS of RMB9.2.

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【Company Research】Vanke - A (000002 CH) – Results slightly missed

Bottom line of RMB38.9bn was 4.8% and 5.9% below our forecast and consensus’ in 2019, respectively, mainly because of less profit contribution from JCE. We trim our earnings forecast by 6.7% in 2020 and 4.9% in 2021. TP is trimmed to RMB31.6, equivalent to 8.0x 20E P/E. Maintain BUY recommendation.

  • Net profit growth slowed 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 down to 15% in 2019. Revenue and net profit grew by 23.8% to RMB367.9bn and 15.1% to RMB38.9bn, respectively. The reported net profit was less than 4.8% of our forecast and 5.9% of street’s. Major discrepancy came from share profit from JCE which tumbled by 39.6% to RMB3.8bn. DPS was maintained as RMB1.045 per share that resulted in payout ratio decline from 34% in 2018 to 30% in 2019.做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易
  • Contracted sales grew by 4% in 2019. Contracted sales amount and area gained by 3.9% to RMB630.8bn and 1.8% to 41.12mn 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 sq m in 2019, respectively. About 42.89mn sq m (worth RMB609.1bn) of property were presold but unbooked as at end-19, providing solid earnings visibility. We expect full year contracted sales to be RMB650bn, up 3% YoY.
  • Prudent 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 land acquisition strategy in 2019. In 2019, Vanke acquired 147 project with attributable GFA of 24.78mn sq m. Average land cost was RMB6,252 per sq m. As at end-19, attributable land bank under construction and for 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 future planning were 61.70mn sq m and 33.6mn sq m, respectively. About 3% of land bank are located in Hubei. Sales suspension in Hubei has 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 limited impact to its sales.
  • Rental income and property management are shinning points. Rental income and revenue for property management increased by 55.6% to RMB4.77bn and 29.6% to RMB12.7bn in 2019, respectively. As 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 at end-19, 108 retail property projects with 9.0mn sq m under management in over 50 cities were managed by SCPG. Vanke property management business had contracted and managed GFA of 640mn sq m and 450mn sq m respectively as at end-19. Vanke is one of the largest property management companies in China.
  • Cut TP to RMB31.60. Net gearing ratio and cash/short term debt ratio were 34.3% and 1.75x, respectively, as at end-19. The 做外匯 還簡單 元期權 期權交易 balance sheet was healthy. We cut earnings forecast by 6.7% to RMB44.7bn in 2020 and 4.9% to RMB51.1bn in 2021. In addition, we raise end-20 NAV forecast to RMB47.02. Based on 8.0x 20E P/E, our TP is changed from RMB33.92 to RMB31.60. Reiterate BUY.

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